Friday, April 29, 2011
What Happen's May 2nd
Personly i am a little skeptical of the polls. But let's say for argument sake that the NDP get 27-30% of the vote come election day and the Liberals get there 22% (let's say). Current projection are a little shaky. At Threehudredandeight.com the projection still have the Liberals at 2nd place and the NDP at 47, but Ekos has the NDP at 98 seats! That leaves a heck of a lot of gray. The Liberal are projected to get 74 seats or as low 56 seats. This leaves a bit of a surprise on May 2nd. If the Liberals get the Threehudredandeight.com projections the House of Commons would be very similar. In fact the Conservative would get 143 seats exactly. Now I think Threehudredandeight.com is being a little to pesemistic on the projections. Ekos is a little to optomistic. So here are my projection provided that the polls stay the same. I think the Conservatives will get 140 about where they were last election maybe picking up a few seats in the Atlantic and Ontario, because of Newfoundland, but losing any gains in Quebec and BC. The NDP at 60 seats grabbing a lot in Quebec, British Columbia and Ontario with maybe a few grabs here and there in the other provinces. The Liberals will get 65 seats even though the Liberals will lose the vote they will still get more seats, because we still lead in Ontario, but it's not that the Liberals are doing better it is because I think the Bloc will hang on even with current polls to many of there seats, because the NDP will just spread there support throught the province that they will only grab a seats in the Ridings were last election the winner got 35% of the vote or less. The Bloc will get 40 seats No real suprise (polls have them at about 25%) they lost seats in the province, but they will still get the majority of the seats, Because NDP support will be devided throught the province that the Bloc will hold on to the majority. The Independents will get 2 one in Quebec in Potiac and one in Ontario with Helena Guergis (Although most projection have her losing I think that she will win, because there aren't any pols on her riding itself). The Greens may just beat the Bloc in the national vote according to polls they are either just ahead by a point or behind by 2%, but more important the Greens according to local polls will get there first seat in BC.