Monday, September 05, 2011

Can We Take Toronto-Danforth! part (1)

Toronto-Danforth is going to have an election very soon in order to fill the vacancy. This riding has only voted NDP since 2004 when Jack Layton just after Jack Layton became leader of the NDP. Now that Jack Layton has sadly died is it possible for us Liberals to take back that seat from the NDP. Well let's look at the numbers

In 2000 the last time the riding voted for the Liberals (although at that time the boundaries were slightly different  ) Liberals got 52% of the vote the NDP were only at 27%. In 2000 the Province of Ontario voted about the same at 52% Liberal with only 8% voting NDP. This of course no surprise that NDP votes tend to be higher in Toronto compared with the rest of the province. In 2004 When the NDP had a strong revival they took 18% of the vote in the province, and as there leader was running in the riding he of course won it with 46% of the vote while the Liberals in the riding dropped 10% to just five points lower than Jack Layton compared with the only 6% in the province. What do these numbers mean? It means that if a by-election was done in this riding around 2005 and Jack Layton wasn't running this riding would be a leaning Liberal riding again. As Liberals would be playing in a riding they only lost slightly and be running against a candidate that wouldn't be the leader of the party.

3 comments:

  1. Timing is everything and it all depends who the NDP will nominate to run for Jack's seat.

    Also, Harper has up to 6 months to call a by-election. Since it is not, and likely never will be, a Conservative stronghold, I imagine Harper, despite his majority, may not be in such a hurry to fill the seat and may well push it as far down the road as he can.

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  2. No, but you could hand it over to the Cons... like the rest of Ontario...

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  3. or look at it this way within the riding: school trustee (NDP), municipal (NDP), provincial (NDP). Toronto Danforth is orange crush all the way, and why not, with NDP being the Official Opposition and Government in Waiting.

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