Wednesday, September 07, 2011

Can We take Toronto-Danforth Part 2

Now That I am done explaining how Liberals would have been very much able to win a by election in Ontario let's look at now the 2006 election. In 2006 Liberals went  in the country and  in Ontario. In Toronto Danforth the Liberal candidate also dropped by 7% while the NDP had a pretty good lead this time around with Jack Layton won 48% more than a double digit lead. If there was a by election after this election would Liberals win it?

Well after 2006 is somewhat similar to today since at that time the Liberals did have an interim leader. So would the Liberals win. I still think yes, because considering that the Liberals would campaign against someone who wouldn't be the leader and the riding has had a Liberal history.

In 2008 The NDP kept about the same support in the Province of Ontario. The Liberals went down. In Mr. Layton's riding the Liberals and NDP both dropped and the lead was 15% now. If there was a by election after that election. I would think the Liberals would still win for the same reason.

1 comment:

  1. I still say it's premature to be thinking that.

    For one, we don't know when the by-election would be held, and timing is everything. Harper has up to 6 months from the day Jack Layton's death was announced to call this by-election.

    Next, while we know Andrew Lang, who ran against Jack the last two elections, is running again in this by-election, we still don't know who the NDP will nominate to run against him.

    Then, there will be the sentimental portion of this campaign; how prevalent will the memory of Jack Layton be during this by-election.

    It will also largely depend on whether or not a permanent leader is selected for the NDP by the time this by-election rolls around. Will Nycole Turmel still be charge? Or will a permanent leader have been already selected? If the latter, who? Remember, there are many voters who still vote for their leader rather than the actual candidate.

    No doubt, it will be a test for both parties.

    ReplyDelete

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