Sunday, March 18, 2012

Broken Convention possibility

Romney is the front runner again (and all is back to normal). At this point the only thing that can give Santorum enough delegates for a broken convention is if Gingrich drops out. Santorum could still win more delegates than Romney though. How?

My math Skills at work. You need 1144 delegates to clinch the nomination. If no one get's it then there is a broken convention. Currently of the delegates allocated Romney has a majority which means if things continue as they are Romney is set to get the majority of the delegates therefore winning the nomination. If Santorum surges again or for that matter Gingrich and manage to take 699 delegates of the 1358 delegates still left to be allocated. Now if Gingrich would drop out and endorse Santorum the possibility of a broken convention starts to become impossible. Because in order to have a broken convention it requires that no one have 1144. If Gingrinch endorses Santorum all his delegates go to him. Therefor the delegates can only be divided up in three.   The only other person in would be Ron Paul

so to illustrate

if Santorum get's Gingrich's delegates then the delegates count would be.

Romney: 484 (need's 660)
Santorum: 375 (need's 769)
Paul: 69 (need's 1075)

the amount of delegates left are 1358. If Paul doesn't get much delegates as people project then unless the race get's really tight Santorum or Romney lower the chances of neither of them getting 1144. If all four stay and everyone except Romney  manage together to get 51.5% of the remaining delegates Romney would face a broken convention



3 comments:

  1. Do you mean a brokered convention? But you might be right with Broken, it is more fitting.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Mark McLaughlin18 March 2012 at 16:28

    The rest of March is up in the air but April will be tough on Santorum.
    The 3rd will be Wisconsin, Maryland and DC, all lean Romney. Santorum will hold on barely until the 24th, when NY, Connecticut, Delaware, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island will sweep him away.
    Then it's over.

    I wonder if Gingrich is so sneaky that he secretly wants Romney to beat Santorum and knows that staying in the race is the best way to make sure that happens.

    ReplyDelete
  3. thescottross.blogspot.com

    I did accidentally write broken, but yeah I stand by it as I think it is more fitting thanks,

    Mark

    Santorum is way behind in all those states unless he makes a strong surge now I don't think there will be a broken convention.

    ReplyDelete

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