Monday, March 26, 2012

How Can the NDP Win.

The NDP stand right now at 106 seats if they want to win a majority government they would have to win 170 seats. that means they would have to gain 64 seats. With 30 new seats coming into the house of commons this will be very preliminary prediction as the makeup of the riding's aren't made yet. Now since Mulcair is leader let me show you the most plausible way the NDP can get into power.

Let's say because Muclair is leader he keeps all his NDP seats from last time get's the extra 3 seats that have just been awarded to Quebec and even get's 4 more seats in the province let's say 2 from Montreal two from rural areas. That's 7 seats. That gives the NDP 65 out of the 78 seats in the province.

In the Atlantic I don't see much room for them to grow except two seats in Nova Scotia. So let's say they get those two seats. That leaves 55 seats to go and as you can see they can't achieve this with just the east they are going to need Ontario and the west.

In Ontario where they will get 15 extra seats we can assume a large portion would go to Toronto. So it would be safe to say a good 6 would go to the NDP if everything stays the way it is, but if the NDP want power they are going to have to do better. surprisingly enough besides the urban urban center of Toronto the outer core they did horrible. they are going to have to break into the outer part of Toronto and try and grab the south part of the province as well as the rural center part.Pretty much nothing short of a big swing to the NDP almost certanly spells death to any odds of a majority government .If they get that big swing I could see them winning 40 seats and instead of 6 out of the 13 new seats how about 10. that would put the NDP at 72 seats out of the 123 seats Ontario will have in 2015. Now I could say that the NDP would get a majority of the seats in Ontario, but I just don't see that happening. I think this is what they could reasonably expect and maybe even expect less.

That leaves 5 seats to go. In the prairies is where the NDP is really going to have to step up their game, but see this is the difficult part for them as it is hard to get rural votes here and still get urban votes in Ontario and especially many votes in Quebec. so if the NDP get the landslide in Ontario and Quebec I would think it hard to get any seats in Alberta (let alone maybe lose their only seat) and in Saskatchewan I don't see them getting any seats there either. In Manitoba they may get one or two Winnipeg seats, but for the sake of argument let's say it turns out to be a zero gain here.

In BC is where I see them able to those last 5 seats and more. In BC if they want to win the plurality of the votes. They have to get the Liberals practically out of Vancouver win those marginal Conservative seats in the rural areas and win strong rural conservative areas if they wish to win BC. So in conclusion this is the scenario I think is most likely for the NDP to achieve power.



4 comments:

  1. Ontario is going to be tough. They are so far back in too many of those ridings to have much of a chance.

    The problem is that most of their vote is taken right from the Liberals and your scenario basically predicts the complete collapse of the Liberal party. Should that happen the other half runns scurrying to the Conservatives makeing the math even harder to work in their favour.

    Provided they keep Quebec (a tall order) the BEST I can see them doing is another 20 or so in Ontario, 10 more in the rest of the country. Still falls far short, and the Conservatives probably increase their seat total as well.

    Anything more is going to need a tital wave of change.

    ReplyDelete
  2. The NDP gets over 30% of the vote in SK but gerrymandering keeps them seatless. If the new boundaries create urban seats in Regina and Saskatoon (rather than the current urban-rural seats), the NDP could get 2-5 seats there. Similarly, they may be able to gain 1-2 more in Edmonton, Calgary or Lethbridge if Tom Tar Sands Mulcair can learn to speak Albertan.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Frunger I agree nothing less than a complete Orange Crush in Ontario in which the collapse of the Bloc will be the collapse of the Liberals.

    Ian I disagree that they will be able to get any seats in Saskatchewan and Alberta, because first trying to keep Quebec will push the prairie provinces away and second they are just to right wing there.

    ReplyDelete
  4. It was not gerrymandering in Saskatchewan as the NDP actually wanted the rural/urban seats they got around Saskatoon and Regina as they had a traditional base in the rural areas, however it has backfired badly.

    ReplyDelete

Any highly offensive matter will be deleted whether it be solid, water, gas or plasma. No comments from outsiders represent the opinions of Owner and Doggy or vanillaman. We reserve the right to delete any comments without explanation.