Thursday, April 18, 2013

A Green BC seats

In this post I will explain the possibility of a green seat in BC in this coming election May 14th.

Jane Sterk Green party leader will be running in Victoria Beacon Hill. This riding in the last election elected Carole James by a large margin

2009 election result
NDP  13,400    55.4%
Lib       6,375    26.3%
Green   4,106    17.0%
Indep      319     1.3%

This riding carries a lot of advantages for Jane Sterk particularly a high Green party base, but Jane Sterk has no chance of winning this riding in the upcoming election. Why? Because the incumbent party in this riding is the NDP, which if the polls are correct are maintaining most of their support in this riding. The Liberals are currently polling well below what they were polling in 2009 and therefore will most likely fall into third place on May 14th, and even if all those Liberal voters go to Jane Sterk she would still not manage to win this riding, because the NDP will most likely maintain over 50% of the vote.

Why did Jane Sterk pick such an impossible riding? She had so many better options to chose from. Like Sannich North and the Islands or West Vancouver Sea to Sky.

Either of these ridings would have been better. Sannich North would have been good, because Elisabeth May is the Green MP for the riding, and she could try and muster up her supporters to vote for Jane Sterk in the provincial election, and this riding would have also been more ripe for the taking, because the incumbent party running in Sannich North is the Liberal party that is polling almost 15% below where they were in the last election.

West Vacouver Sea to Sky would have also been a better choice for the green party leader Jane. Not only is the incumbent in the riding a Liberal, which provides loads of opportunity for the Greens to grab the seat, but the green party got a strong nearly second place showing in 2009. In fact the Green candidate in the riding got more votes and a greater share of the votes in West Vacouver Sea to Sky than Jane Sterk did in her previous attempt at a seat in Esquimalt-Royal Roads.

The Green party especially those in BC need to understand that they can win in some ridings if they run their best candidates their. The Greens in BC missed a golden opportunity to capture their first seat in the British Columbia assembly by not running their leader in the best riding.


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